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[국외동향] [JRC]2000년 이후 온실가스 배출이 더 빨리 증가하고 있다
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   jrc_090525_newsrelease_edgar.pdf (29.9K) [29] DATE : 0000-00-00 00:00:00

[JRC]2000년 이후 온실가스 배출이 더 빨리 증가하고 있다


: 1970~2005년 세계 배출의 신규 데이터


 


- 유럽 공동연구센터 보도자료(JRC, Joint Research Center, 2009.5.25)


 







* EDGAR 이전 버전은 지구 과학 공동체와 국제 정책 결정자들에 의해 15년 이상 동안 광범위하게 사용되었다. 세계지도상에 표시되는 국가별 그리고 도표의 세부 배출 현황은 EDGAR 프로젝트 웹사이트에서 내려받을 수 있다. EDGAR 데이터베이스는 2009년 12월 코펜하겐에서 열릴 기후변화 당사국 총회(COP15, United Nations Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen 2009) 시 온실가스배출 부문에서의 세계적인 추세에 대한 전반적인 전망 보고를 위해서 사용될 것이다. 특히 이번 데이터베이스는 2000~2005년 사이 배출 증가율이 급속히 높아지고 있음을 보여준다. 그리고 개도국의 배출이 2004년이후 선진국보다 많아졌다(by 필).


 


신규 데이터는 2000년과 2005년 사이에 인간이 유발하는 지구적인 온실가스 배출이 15% 증가했다는 것을 보여준다. 1990~1995년 기간 동안 3%, 1995~2000년 사이에 6% 배출 증가율과 비해 급속한 증가를 나타낸다. 연간 온실가스배출은 1970년 이산화탄소 환산톤으로 240억 톤에서 1990년 330억 톤, 2005년 410억 톤으로 증가했다. 1990년(교토의정서의 기준년도)~2005년에 대기중에 방출된 온실가스 5600억 톤이다.


 


이러한 결론은 최근 유럽 JRC과 네덜란드 PBL(환경영향평가청)의 공동 프로젝트의 결과, 지구대기 연구를 위한 배출 데이터베이스(Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research, EDGAR)에 기반한다. EDGAR v4.0로 불리는 신규 데이터는 온실가스 전체에 대해서 국가별, 분야별 배출을 1970~2005년, 35년간 유일하고 구체적인 개요를 완성한다.


 


EDGAR 프로젝트는 비교가능하고 일관적인 방식으로 전세계의 배출을 모델링하기 위해서 에너지 생산과 소비, 산업 활동, 농업 생산, 쓰레기 관리/처리, 바이오매스 연소에 대한 국제 통계로부터 최신의 과학적 정보와 데이터를 사용한다. EDGAR는 또한 1990년 전 20년 동안의 역사적인 배출 데이터를 제공한다.


 


개발도상국에서의 배출에 대한 새로운 정보


 


신규 데이터는 개도국이 선진국보다 1인당 배출 수준이 명백하게 더 낮음에도 불구하고(4톤 대 15톤), 온실가스 배출이 2004년 이후 선진국보다 개도국에서 더 높았다는 점을 보여준다.


 


최근의 EDGAR 결과는 선진국의 연간 배출 증가는 낮아졌다는 이전 보고서를 보완한다. 1970년에 160억 톤 정도 수준이었는데, 2005년에 거의 190억 톤으로 증가했다. 그러나 개도국의 배출은 1970년에 70억 톤에서 2005년에 210억으로 거의 3배 정도로 증가했다. 이 데이터는 과거에 산불이 자연적인 것인지 인간에 의한 것인지 분간하기 어렵기 때문에 산불은 고려하지 않았다.


 


이산화탄소가 2000~2005년 18%로 가장 많이 증가했더라도, 메탄과 아산화질소와 같은 인간이 발생시킨 온실가스 역시 상당히 증가했다(11%와 6%). 반면 불소가 함유된 온실가스의 배출이 40% 만큼 증가했다. 이렇게 다른 온실가스가 절대적인 배출량이 훨씬 적더라도, 분자당 지구온난화 잠재력은 이산화탄소보다 월등하게 높다.


 


올 말에 유엔 기후변화총회 이전 기후변화에 관한 국제협상이 준비되고 있는데, 선진국과 개도국에서의 온실가스에 대한 역사적 그리고 현재의 추세에 대한 지구적 전망은 모든 당사국에게 매우 중요하다.


 


신규 데이터는 선진국과 개도국 모두의 일관성있는 인벤토리를 제공함으로써 중요한 정보 차이를 채우는데 도움이 된다. 더 최근의 평가들이 선진국들이 UNFCCC에 그리고 교토의정서 아래에서 그들의 배출을 보고하는데 유용한 반면, 개도국을 위한 인벤토리는 질적으로 그리고 유용성 측면에서 상당히 차이가 나는 경향이 있었다. 때때로 시계열 데이터에서 불안전하거나 구체적이지 않았다.


  * 관련 웹사이트 http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/background.php


  ** 아래 내용과 도표를 참조할 것


 


Background information: EDGAR v4.0 greenhouse gas emissions dataset (1970-2005)



The information and views expressed in this document are those of the authors and may not in any circumstance be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission.


ⓒ European Communities, 2009.


Reproduction of the data is authorized, except for commercial purposes, provided the source is fully acknowledged in the form "Source: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), release version 4.0. http://edgar.jrc.ec.europe.eu, 2009".


May 18, 2009

Introduction


This background documentation provides information about the latest results from a joint project of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL): the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). This new dataset, EDGAR v4.0, gives a unique detailed overview covering 35 years (1970-2005) of greenhouse gas emissions by country and emission sector. The dataset does not only cover carbon dioxide (CO2) but also the other relevant greenhouse gases: methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorcarbons (HFCs), perfluorcarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).


As international negotiations on climate-change ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15) in Copenhagen later this year are prepared, a global perspective on historical and present day trends in greenhouse gas emissions in both industrialised and developing countries is of great importance to all participating parties. Although estimates for more recent years are available for industrialised countries reporting their emissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and under the Kyoto protocol, inventories for developing countries vary in availability, completeness and detail. The new dataset helps to fill this information gap by providing consistent inventories for both industrialised and developing countries.


Global emission trends of greenhouse gas emissions (1970-2005)


The EDGAR project uses the latest scientific information and data from international statistics on energy production and consumption, industrial manufacturing, agricultural production, waste treatment and disposal and burning of biomass in order to model historical and present day emissions for all countries in the world in a comparable and consistent manner. Details on the methodologies and data applied are presented.


In order to compare different greenhouse gas emissions the emissions of individual gases have to be converted into CO2-equivalents. The metric for this conversion is the Global Warming Potential expressing the contribution to global warming of the specific greenhouses in relation to carbon dioxide. Throughout this background document the 100 year GWP values as used in the Kyoto Protocol are applied (as published in the IPCC Second Assessment Report). Figure 1 present emissions of greenhouse for the sector described above, including biomass burning emissions. This means including CO2 emissions from forest fires but excluding CO2 emissions from biofuels combustion, and burning of agricultural waste, grasslands and savanna fields assuming that the carbon released during combustion equals the carbon uptake of the biomass during re-growing within a year. As shown in Figure 1, global emissions of greenhouse gases increased from 29 Pg CO2-equivalents in 1970 to 47.5 Pg in 2005 with important growth in CO2 in the energy sector but also with a rather strong contribution of N2O and CH4 emissions. In the 1970-2005 period covered by the EDGAR v4.0 dataset in total ∼1300 Pg CO2-equivalents have been released into the atmosphere. In the first years of the new century, global emissions showed a stronger annual increase than in the 1990s.


Figure 1: Global annual emissions [Pg CO2-eq] of greenhouse emissions in the period 1970-2005 expressed following source definitions under the UNFCCC, using a Global Warming Potential with a time horizon of 100 years.
Figure 1: Global annual emissions [Pg CO2-eq] of greenhouse emissions in the period 1970-2005 expressed following source definitions under the UNFCCC, using a Global Warming Potential with a time horizon of 100 years. [click to enlarge].


Emission trends in industrialized and developing countries (1970-2005)


As mentioned in the introduction the dataset presented here aims to fill an information gap on inventories from developing countries (often expressed as non-Annex I countries) compared. In addition, the dataset provides historical data on greenhouse gas emissions from industrialized countries 20 year further back in time than the national inventories.


In order to compare emissions in industrialized and developing countries the emissions data presented in this section is presented excluding emissions from forest fires. The reason for this is that it is difficult to assign these to be either man-made or from natural sources. Following the data in Figure 1, excluding forest fires emissions, global annual emissions of greenhouse gases increased from 24 billion tones of CO2-equivalents in 1970 to 41 billion tonnes in 2005. Although carbon dioxide showed the largest growth of 18% between 2000-2005, global anthropogenic emissions of methane and nitrous oxide also increased considerably (by 10% and 7% respectively), while emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases are shown to have increased by as much as 40%. Figure 2 presents the annual emissions of greenhouse gases in industrialized and developing countries in the period 1970-2005 in terms of emissions per year and expressed in emissions per capita. For completeness also the emissions from international aviation and international shipping are presented.


Figure 2: Left, annual emissions (1970-2005) of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, PFCs, HFCs) in Pg CO2-equivalents from Annex I and non-Annex I countries and from international aviation and shipping. Right, greenhouse gas emissions from Annex I and non-Annex I countries per capita (ton CO2-eq./cap).
Figure 2: Left, annual emissions (1970-2005) of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, PFCs, HFCs) in Pg CO2-equivalents from Annex I and non-Annex I countries and from international aviation and shipping. Right, greenhouse gas emissions from Annex I and non-Annex I countries per capita (ton CO2-eq./cap). [click to enlarge].


As shown in Figure 2, according to EDGAR v4.0 calculations man-made emissions in industrialized countries were about 19 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalents in the year 2005 starting from around 16 billion tonnes in 1970. New insights by the EDGAR project show that man-made emissions in developing countries show a 3-fold increase in emissions starting from 7 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 1970 to about 21 billion tonnes in 2005. These findings should be seen in perspective: average emissions per capita in developing countries are about 4 ton CO2-equivalents which is a significant less than the average 15 ton CO2-equivalents per capita in industrialized countries.


Countries with the largest emissions of greenhouse gases (1970-2005)


Table 1 present emission of greenhouse gases in the countries responsible for 80% of the global emissions in the year 2005 released into the atmosphere. The table presents emissions and trends for man-made emissions only, excluding short cycle CO2 such as combustion of wood fuel, agricultural waste burning, savannah burning and grassland fires. Since it is difficult to assign forest fire emissions as man-made or natural, emissions are reported as excluding LULUCF, followed by 5 years trends excluding LULUCF. For comparison the last column shows the emissions in 2005 including LULUCLF emissions to indicate that forest-fires and decay emissions have a significant impact on the emissions.


These results show that a large fraction of the global man-made greenhouse gas emissions are released into the atmosphere in China and the United States. The emissions from international shipping and international aviation contribute to approximately 2% of the global emissions. To illustrate emission trends in specific periods in the recent past, the ratios between 2005-2000, 2000-1995 and 1995-1990 are presented in Table 1. Emissions in China show an almost 60% increase in the period 2000-2005, while in the period 1995-2000 the increase was modest. Other countries with large growth rates over 2000-2005 are Indonesia, Iran and Saudi Arabia. The growth is most likely caused by increase fuel production activities in these countries. Of the largest emitting countries, only Germany, United Kingdom and the Ukraine are estimated to have lower emissions in 2005 compared to 1990.


Table 1: Greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, HFCs and PFCs) in the countries responsible for 80% of the global emissions in the year 2005 and international aviation and shipping for comparison (unit: Pg CO2-eq/).




















































































































































































Country 2005 Excl. LULUCF (Pg CO2-eq.) Ratio 2005/2000 (excl. LULUCF) Ratio 2000/1995 (excl. LULUCF) Ratio 1995/1990 (excl. LULUCF) 2005 Incl. LULUCF (Pg CO2-eq.)
World total 41.33 1.15 1.06 1.03 47.50
China 8.55 1.59 1.06 1.32 8.55
United States of America 7.08 1.02 1.09 1.05 7.10
Russian Federation 2.44 1.07 0.96 0.72 2.48
India 2.13 1.14 1.14 1.18 2.17
Japan 1.65 1.04 1.02 1.06 1.65
Germany 1.06 0.97 0.91 0.91 1.06
Brazil 1.00 1.15 1.11 1.20 2.64
South Korea 0.70 1.03 1.22 1.60 0.70
Canada 0.70 1.03 1.09 1.11 0.75
Indonesia 0.66 1.24 1.17 1.19 1.58
United Kingdom 0.65 0.99 0.95 0.94 0.65
Mexico 0.60 1.08 1.17 1.05 0.65
Australia 0.59 1.05 1.19 1.03 0.61
Iran 0.59 1.20 1.20 1.30 0.59
France 0.58 1.01 1.03 0.97 0.58
Italy 0.58 1.03 1.05 1.02 0.58
International shipping 0.56 1.16 1.15 1.13 0.56
Ukraine 0.53 0.98 0.86 0.59 0.53
South Africa 0.46 1.15 1.06 1.06 0.46
Spain 0.45 1.17 1.18 1.08 0.45
International aviation 0.42 1.14 1.19 1.05 0.42
Poland 0.38 1.01 0.85 0.95 0.38
Saudi Arabia 0.36 1.23 1.20 1.27 0.36

1: excluding short cycle CO2 such as combustion of wood fuel, agricultural waste burning, and savannah burning. Excluding greenhouse gas emissions from grassland fires and forest fires.


2: excluding short cycle CO2 such as combustion of wood fuel, agricultural waste burning, and savannah burning and grassland fires. Including greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O) from forest fires.


Figure 3 shows the national man-made greenhouse gas emissions in ton CO2-equivalent per capita per country (excl. LULUCF). This shows that although countries like China, Brazil, India and Indonesia are large emitters according to Table 1, these countries are emitting less greenhouse gas emissions per capita than most of the industrial countries.


Figure 3. Annual per capita emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, PFCs, HFCs) in the year 2005 excluding emissions from IPCC LULUCF sector and CO2 emissions from biomass combustion.
Figure 3. Annual per capita emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, PFCs, HFCs) in the year 2005 excluding emissions from IPCC LULUCF sector and CO2 emissions from biomass combustion.[click to enlarge].


EDGAR as a reference database for the global scientific community


Previous versions of EDGAR have been widely used by the global scientific community since more than 15 years due to the consistent global coverage and the spatial allocation of country and sector emissions. In EDGARv4.0 emissions are spatially allocated on detailed geospatial maps (0.1 degree) using the exact location of energy and manufacturing facilities, road networks, shipping routes, human and animal population density and agricultural land use. The resolution of 0.1 degree has been selected so that local, regional and global models can use the same emission dataset. Increased possibilities to verify emissions are thus becoming available through the use of advanced modelling in combination with surface and satellite observations at different scales. Figure 4 illustrates the high resolution emissions data through representation of the global greenhouse gases in CO2-equivalents per grid cell.


Figure 4 Global greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, PFCs and HFCs) in the year 2005 Gg CO2-equivalents per 0.1 degree grid cell. Shown are emissions from anthropogenic origin excluding aviation and land-use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF).
Figure 4 Global greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, PFCs and HFCs) in the year 2005 Gg CO2-equivalents per 0.1 degree grid cell. Shown are emissions from anthropogenic origin excluding aviation and land-use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). [click to enlarge].


Methodology and further information


Information on the methodology applied to calculate global greenhouse gas emissions 1970-2005 by world country and on 0.1 degree spatial grid is provided.


Detailed annual emissions by world country and on spatial grid for the period 1970-2005 are available for download.


EDGAR project team


John van Aardenne (JRC) project leader, Suvi Monni (JRC), Jos Olivier (PBL), Ulrike Doering (JRC), Lorenzo Orlandini (JRC), Valerio Pagliari (JRC), Jeroen Peters (PBL), Fulgencio Sanmartin (JRC), Greet Maenhout (JRC).


Contact information


edgar-info(at)jrc.ec.europa.eu


European Commission - JRC Joint Research Centre, IES Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Climate Change Unit, TP 290, I-21020, Ispra (Va), Italy.


 
   
 


 
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